Will personality, not policy, win the next election?

Wednesday 30th October 2019

While Jeremy Corbyn seems excited at the proposition of a general election and turning his focus to a domestic agenda, as well as Brexit, if the bookies are to be believed he has a very steep hill to climb to be the next resident of 10 Downing Street.

Labour haven’t won at the polls since 2005 and the man who lead them them was so far removed from Corbyn, as to have emanated from an entirely different political party.

Tony Blair differed from the current Leader in numerous ways, with his long and popular premiership being marred in the history books by his handling of the war in Iraq.

Blair was a centrist, who believed Socialist politics could only thrive in the UK, if policies were designed to capture the middle ground.

Many would argue that David Cameron’s success came from the same ethos and while from opposing stables, actually drew on similar grassroots’ support.

However, the political landscape is now far removed from the one that was won over by these two politicians.

Corbyn has definitely taken the Labour Party to the far left of politics, while Boris Johnson has without doubt moved the Conservatives to the hard right.

This polarity reflects the same divisions that exist in the country regarding the Brexit conundrum, and represents an abandonment of the middle ground.

If Cameron and Blair were correct in their analysis of the electorate, it seems that the only party who could do well would be the Liberal Democrats.

It is certainly worth noting that the Lib Dems did very well at the European elections in May, although a general election is a very different beast.

Leader Jo Swinson is definitely talking the talk about being the next PM, and it is expected that the Liberals will fare much better than they did in 2017, this December. However, not only her gender, but her lack of government or cabinet experience will put off many traditional voters.

Of course, while we do not have a presidency, and it is the party, rather than the leader that is under scrutiny, there is absolutely no doubt that the front person of a political regime has an enormous impact.

When Corbyn was elected as leader, Blair warned that he would make Labor unelectable for a generation, and on the other side of the divide, it appears that Johnson’s personality is a real winner across the country.

There is no doubt that the showdown between these three characters will be volatile, and it may be won on personality rather than policy.

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Prime Minister After Boris Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn 9/4
Keir Starmer 14/1
Nigel Farage 16/1
Jo Swinson 18/1
Michael Gove 20/1
Ken Clarke 25/1
Rebecca Long-Bailey 28/1
Margaret Beckett 28/1
Yvette Cooper 28/1
Dominic Raab 33/1
Angela Rayner 33/1
Dominic Grieve 33/1
Sajid Javid 33/1
Rory Stewart 40/1
Emily Thornberry 40/1
Amber Rudd 40/1
Priti Patel 50/1
John Mcdonnell 50/1
Jeremy Hunt 50/1
Penny Mordaunt 50/1
Tom Watson 66/1
Caroline Lucas 66/1
Ruth Davidson 100/1
Jacob Rees Mogg 100/1
Hillary Benn 100/1
Andrea Leadsom 100/1
Tom Tugendhat 100/1
Liz Truss 100/1
Lisa Nandy 100/1
Chuka Umunna 100/1
James Cleverly 100/1
David Miliband 100/1
Harriet Harman SP
Each Way Terms

Prime Minister After Boris Johnson

Odds correct as of 30th Oct, 12:42 . Odds are subject to change.
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