Latest poll gives Johnson majority of 68

Thursday 28th November 2019

Pre-election polls have been the scourge of many a political party, forecasting jubilation and delivering disappointment, or visa-versa.

For example, few expected the country to vote for Brexit in the referendum and Trump in the White House looked like a dystopian dream in the fortnight prior to the vote.

However the pollsters were wrong on both counts.

Currently Jeremy Corbyn will be hoping that once again the polls are wrong, and by contrast, Johnson will be counting on them going against form and being precise in their forecasts.

Of course, each poll tries to be very careful about the samples they choose to make a precise calculation and only ever rely on their samples’ decision at that moment in time, which may differ wildly from their actual decisions on polling day.

The latest YouGov poll comes does heavily on the side of the Conservatives, predicting a landslide victory  for the Tories, returning them  to power with 359 seats in the House of Commons, giving them a majority of 68.

This represents the sort of luxury, that Theresa May could only have dreamt of, and would mean that Boris Johnson would no longer be shackled by the DUP, or the prospect of any other coalition partnership.

This calculation would certainly give both sides food for thought and that  may be precisely why Johnson seems unwilling to undergo the scrutiny of BBC interviewer Andrew Neil.

There is no doubt that Neil is an interview heavyweight, who managed to take apart the normally erudite and articulate Nicola Sturgeon on Monday and created headlines on Tuesday when he was unable to extract a specific anti-semitic apology from Corbyn on Tuesday.

Given Johnson’s predisposition to avoid the truth, spin endless party strap-lines and avoid any detail, viewers were eagerly anticipating Johnson’s moment in Neil’s spotlight.

However, it seems Boris has decided to decline the invitation.

In fact, he is the only party leader who has  refused this scrutiny and has been described as, ‘running scared’ by many.

It seems that the PM’s senior political adviser, who successfully plotted the Leave campaign, have taken the decision that Johnson would simply fare badly in a Neil interview and with the current polls in the Tory’s favour, it is simply not worth taking any chances to de-rail their campaigning.

Government After General Election

Conservative Majority 1/3
Labour Minority 6/1
Conservative Minority 11/1
Labour – Snp Coalition 12/1
Conservative – Dup Coalition 18/1
Labour – Lib Dem – Snp Coalition 22/1
Labour – Lib Dem Coalition 25/1
Labour Majority 25/1
Conservative – Brexit Party Coalition 33/1
Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition 66/1
Lib Dem – Snp Coalition 200/1
Lib Dem Minority 200/1
Conservative – Labour Coalition 300/1
Lib Dem Majority 400/1
Brexit Party Minority 750/1

Government After General Election

5. Conservative – Dup Coalition
6. Labour – Lib Dem – Snp Coalition
7. Labour – Lib Dem Coalition
9. Conservative – Brexit Party Coalition
10. Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition
11. Lib Dem – Snp Coalition
13. Conservative – Labour Coalition
Odds correct as of 12th Dec, 09:35 . Odds are subject to change.
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