Johnson proposes Christmas election

Friday 25th October 2019

The last time a Christmas election was called in the UK was in 1923. The electorate went to the ballot box and returned Ramsay MacDonald as prime minister. However, what is most intriguing is that the Conservatives led by Stanley Baldwin won the most votes, but Labour and Asquith’s Liberal Party were able to unite and take power.

Boris Johnson is currently calling for an election and is posing December 12 as the earliest opportunity for this event.

He has been propelled to this position after MPs voted to have more time to scrutinise his latest Withdrawal Agreement with Brussels and being forced to see if the EU will grant an extension to the Brexit deadline, due to The Benn Act.

However, despite the PM’s desire for a general election, it is simply not in his power to create one. The Fixed Term Parliament Act, will not be triggered until 2022, he can’t call a vote of no confidence in his own administration and he requires a two-thirds majority of MPs in the House of Commons to support him.

Of course in any other circumstances, any opposition party would be happy to be given the chance to unseat the present government, however the rolling Brexit scenario has made this more complicated.

Until an extension to Brexit has been agreed and a new deadline set, the opposition are worried that the parliamentary timetable could still allow the PM to opt for a no deal solution. However, if Brussels does come back with an offer in the next couple of days, then although MPs are sure to argue that there time was better spent analysing and amending the new bill, rather than being Luton the streets campaigning, it is quite possible it will be voted through the House.

Currently, the bookies are suggesting that the Conservatives will be returned with the most seats, but not necessarily a majority, in which case the whole ugly mess of solving Brexit with a hung parliament will start all over again.

Or maybe, as in 1923, a Labour/Liberal alliance will be formed and Johnson’s tenure in Downing Street will come to an abrupt end.

Government After The Next General Election

Conservative Majority 1/3
Labour Minority 6/1
Conservative Minority 11/1
Labour – Snp Coalition 12/1
Conservative – Dup Coalition 18/1
Labour – Lib Dem – Snp Coalition 22/1
Labour – Lib Dem Coalition 25/1
Labour Majority 25/1
Conservative – Brexit Party Coalition 33/1
Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition 66/1
Lib Dem – Snp Coalition 200/1
Lib Dem Minority 200/1
Conservative – Labour Coalition 300/1
Lib Dem Majority 400/1
Brexit Party Minority 750/1

Government After The Next General Election

5. Conservative – Dup Coalition
6. Labour – Lib Dem – Snp Coalition
7. Labour – Lib Dem Coalition
9. Conservative – Brexit Party Coalition
10. Conservative – Lib Dem Coalition
11. Lib Dem – Snp Coalition
13. Conservative – Labour Coalition
Odds correct as of 12th Dec, 09:35 . Odds are subject to change.
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