Brexit deal within reach . . . or is it?

Wednesday 16th October 2019

Three and a half long years have passed since the 2016 EU referendum, and as the clock ticks down to the Halloween deadline, it looks as if the long suffering Withdrawal Agreement, negotiated by Theresa May is finally about to be replaced.

Since Boris Johnson took over as leader of the Conservative Party, little appeared to be happening at the negotiation table, with much of his time spent indulged in bullish, but largely empty rhetoric, with the support of his political adviser Dominic Cummings.

However in the last week, it seems as if Johnson is finally taking the chance of achieving a deal more seriously and his representatives, led by Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay, have been huddled in rooms with EU negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels.

Last night, while there were no official press statements, the feeling emanating from both sides was that a deal would be done by midnight.

However, in true Bredxit style, the deadline does not seem to have been met yet again and more time, it seems, is required to hammer out the detail.

The EU Summit starts tomorrow and carries on through Friday, so it is imperative that if a deal is to be signed off, at least with the EU, then it has to be achieved by the end of play today.

Of course, this is not the end of the road for Johnson, he still has to get this new deal through parliament during its emergency sitting on Saturday, and if the main difference in this new version is that a customs barrier is drawn in the Irish Sea, something that has been ruled out in the past, how would it be possible to get the DUP to support the prime minister.

Political pundits will be eagerly awaiting the outcome by the end of today and speculating relentlessly on how this might affect business in the House of Commons on Saturday.

No Deal Brexit In 2019

No (Withdrawal Agreement Is Ratified, Article 50 Extended Beyond 2019 Or Article 50 Revoked) 1/8
Yes (Uk Leave The Eu In 2019 Without Withdrawal Agreement In Place) 5/1
Odds correct as of 16th Oct, 10:30 . Odds are subject to change.
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