As Boris Johnson pushes ahead on Brexit, what will the PM do about Scotland?

Tuesday 17th December 2019

The country woke today to headlines that Boris Johnson was about to pass a law in parliament to prevent any Brexit process being extended beyond 2020.

Of course now that he is riding high on a massive majority in the House of Commons, the shackles are off and the PM is more or less free to do what he wants.

The Withdrawal Bill can be passed, possibly by the end of the week, he can attempt to negotiate trade tariffs with the EU within the year and even though he has promised that there will be no selling off of the NHS to Trump and huge investment in the police, he now has a five year buffer ahead of him in which to do it.

He also no longer needs to be propped up by the DUP, which makes decisions about the Irish border after Brexit much easier, but then there is one thorn in his side, which may not be so easy.

Scotland has 59 constituencies which are represented in the Houses of Parliament and after last Thursday’s election the SNP now hold 48 of them.

This was a coup for Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, although not a surprise. Scottish citizens had voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU in the referendum, so it was almost expected that the Tories, and Labour would lose seats in the recent poll. Such was their victory however, that Lib Dem Leader, Jo Swinson who was even an advocate of revoking Article 50, was replaced by 27 year old  SNP candidate Amy Willoughby.

While current legislation means that Westminster, and the PM, has to grant Scotland permission to have an Independence Referendum, however with such a substantial majority for the SNP in the Scottish Parliament the issue will inevitably grow in stature.

The last Independence vote, held in 2014, was won by the No vote by 56 percent to 44, but this was long before the question of Brexit had been raised and was piled as a ‘once in a lifetime’ occurrence.

However, now that leaving the EU has become practically written in stone, Scottish citizens may vote quite differently if they had another opportunity.

Could Boris Johnson possibly be seen as the man who split up the union of the UK? Will the Scots sit idly by and let London dictate their fate?

Although ensconced in his new role with an enormous security blanket of MPs around him, opening the way for his Brexit promises to be fulfilled, Scotland may prove to be a real thorn in his side.

Nicola Sturgeon is unlikely to let go of this issue any time soon.

Next Scottish Independence Referendum Result

For Independence (Pass) 5/6
Against Independence (Fail) 5/6
Odds correct as of 17th Dec, 08:59 . Odds are subject to change.
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