5/6 no overall majority in election outcome
As parliament dissolves for the general election fun to begin, bookmakers and pundits alike are predicting that the outcome of the December 12 ballot will be that no party will secure an overall majority.
This of course is completely counter-productive to the reason for going to the country in the first place.
Losing seats in the 2017 election tied Theresa May’s hands in Westminster and it has been intricately documented how Johnson has failed to deliver his “do or die” Brexit because of his lack of numbers in the House of Commons.
It was clearly his desire to go to the country, boost the numbers on the Tory benches and finally get his Brexit deal passed as law.
However, both the electorate and the House of Commons have been shaken by the last three years in a way that could have hardly been believed possible, and in that re-design a number of small parties have emerged.
The Independent Party was established, the Brexit Party was formed to replace UKIP, and the Liberals found members crossing political divides to swell their numbers.
There are now more options for the UK voter to choose from and so the likelihood of the two main parties securing a majority is even more remote.
Not forgetting the role of the DUP in Ireland and of course Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP in Scotland and even the Greens.
Voters will be dared to decide where their new political home lies and for many that will mean placing their trust in a completely new direction.
Tory remainers are likely to find solace in voting for the Liberal Democrats, disgruntled Tory Leavers will vote for the Brexit Party, and fervent Labour supporters disappointed by Corbyn’s lack of presence in the Brexit debate may either vote Tory or Liberal depending on their position.
This is precisely why the outcome is so hard to predict and therefore why desperate politicians seeking to secure a share of the vote are likely to get pretty nasty in the next few weeks.
Johnson has already compared Corbyn to Stalin in his article in The Telegraph today and that is only on Day 1.
It looks likely that the election campaign is about to mirror the vitriol that was recently exhibited in parliament and things could get very dirty and very messy.
Unfortunately if the bookies and pundits are right, a happy ending is unlikely because it seems the country may emerge with another hung parliament in December and months, if not years, of more chaos and confusion.
Happy Christmas everyone.
Next UK Election -Most Seats
|No Overall Majority||15/8|
|Liberal Democrats Majority||200/1|
|Any Other Party Majority||500/1|